Tag Archives: covid19

Predicting Public Procurement Irregularities in the COVID-19 Response of Local Government Units (LGUs) in the Philippines

Authors: Barajas, J.R., Aspra, N., Gealone, P.J., Lucero, A., Padua, O., Ramos, M.

Motivated by ensuring transparency, fairness, and efficiency in public procurement at the time of the COVID-19 pandemic, a team of engineers and faculty from Bicol Region (Region 5) in the Philippines collected, digitized, and analyzed public procurement data to inform the COVID-19 response of select Local Governments in the country.

Highlights of the Report:

• On average, only 2 out of 10 LGU contracts have been awarded in
2020.

• For every Php1 spent, approximately Php1 remains unspent in
the procurement of goods and services made by LGUs.

• A total of Php481 billion were distributed across all LGUs in the country
for 2020 but only 10% of this budget was allocated for the procurement
of drugs and medicines. 40% of this budget went to construction
projects.

• Excluding LGU contracts not posted in the PhilGEPS website, only Php10
billion (2.16% of the total LGU budget) was allocated for COVID-
19 related contracts.

• An equivalent amount of Php720 million was potentially lost from 786
LGU contracts flagged as irregular.

• Audit findings for LGUs were primarily centered on directing accountable
officers to comply to documentary requirements mandated by existing
circulars, memorandums, and Philippine laws.

• A logistic regression model with an accuracy of 91.29% was developed
to identify contracts that are potentially irregular.

Short Summary of the Report:

From examination of 296,220 local government unit contracts, this project was able to develop a logistic regression model capable of predicting potentially irregular LGU contracts posted on the PhilGEPS website for the fiscal year 2020 at an accuracy of 91.29%. Validation of the model using metrics derived from the confusion matrix revealed that the developed model had a recall score of 1.0 and a precision score of 0.029. While the precision of the model may be
low, the high recall score is deemed more important in this use-case since it would be more costly for an LGU to miss out on irregular contracts. Overall, the developed prediction model is seen to be highly beneficial as a decision
support tool for LGUs since this could potentially narrow down the number of awarded LGU contracts to be legally reviewed resulting in a faster turnover of review cycles conducted within a given fiscal year.

The team’s collected datasets are available for download in the OCDex open data portal, attribution to the authors and contributors is required for use.

DOWNLOAD FULL REPORT HERE:

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Are you interested in this report? Do reach out to us at learning@layertechlab.com so that we can directly connect you with the authors, as well as the documentations they submitted.

A proper REACTion in securing integrity on the public bidding of construction and infrastructure tenders amidst the COVID-19 pandemic

(This article and the manuscript were submitted by the research team and may be updated in the future)

As of July 22, 2020, a total of 72,269 total COVID-19 cases has been reported, of which 46,803 are still classified as active cases [1]. With this continual rise of COVID-19 cases, it is estimated that this would cost about PHP2.2 trillion economic losses and is equivalent to at least a 2% contraction in the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of the country [2]. As a consequence of this economic loss, about 26% of businesses operating in the country have already closed [3] resulting to about 100,000 Filipinos losing their jobs in the 1st half of 2020 [4] Indeed, there is an immediate need to control the spread of COVID-19 in the country to further mitigate the impact of the said disease to the Filipino people.


Fastracking the Public Procurement Process


The COVID-19 crisis in the country is a race against time. As seen from the success stories of our neighboring ASEAN countries, fast, efficient, and integral procurement played a crucial role in securing a “COVID-free” nationwide status. In response to this sense of urgency brought about the by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government Procurement Policy Board (GPPB) recently issued a series of resolutions to shift current publicly held procurement related to COVID-19 into negotiated procurement (emergency cases) and relax existing guidelines on the submission of vital bid documents [5]-[8]. For instance, expired business or mayor permits and unnotarized bid documents submitted by eligible bidders could already be accepted under these new GPPB issuances.


Challenge on Procurement Integrity and Transparency


While it is necessary to fastrack public procurement in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, it is equally important to ensure integral and transparent implemented procurement processes to protect the interest of the Filipino people. Considered as one of the most vulnerable to corruption especially in this time of an emerging health crisis, relaxation of the imposed regulations is seen to compromise the overall integrity of the present public bidding processes. The acceptance of unnotarized bid documents, for instance, could promulgate misrepresentation on the capacity of an eligible bidder to faithfully undertake any contractual obligations if such barriers are removed.


REACT Risk Indexing System


Through a research grant given by Layertech Software Labs, Inc. and Hivos – People Unlimited, a group of faculty researchers from Bicol University College of Engineering looked closely into this present dilemma. Considering that shortening the time needed in awarding government contracts is of utmost priority, a rapid evaluator and assessor of contractor traits (REACT) risk indexing system was proposed and investigated as an intervening and supplemental tool to aid in upholding the integrity of the presently changed public procurement process on construction and infrastructure tenders related to the COVID-19 pandemic.


Using historical data periodically published by GPPB, assessment of an eligibility of a contractor based on its previous performance was further simplified by these researchers. Through REACT, three general classification of contractors were reported namely, “low risk”, “moderate risk”, and “high risk”. Contractors that were classified as “low risk” in the
proposed risk indexing system were found to be the most eligible as these contractors were reported to have at most an average negative slippage of 7.5%. In accordance to the findings reported by these researchers, it was further suggested that necessary precautions and scrutiny be exercised to those contractors that would be classified as “moderate risk” and “high risk” contractors since these contractors were found to have an average negative slippage of at least 24.9% which is well beyond the acceptable negative slippage of 15%.


Indeed, as presented in the case study of the proposed REACT risk indexing system to the publicly available historical data of contractors in Region V, the applicability of the proposed system to preserve integrity of the presently relaxed public procurement process has been validated.


With the validation of the efficacy of the proof of concept as reported by the researchers, the proposed REACT risk indexing system is seen to be a plausible data-driven solution in light of the challenges in the public procurement process amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.

Find the presentation slides below:

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Watch the full recording of the presentation below:


References:
[1] https://www.doh.gov.ph/covid19tracker
[2] https://business.inquirer.net/298536/p2-2-trillion-in-losses-cost-of-covid-19-impact-on-ph-economy
[3] https://mb.com.ph/2020/07/16/closure-of-26-of-ph-businesses-alarms-dti/#:~:text=Of%20the%202%2C135%20companies%20surveyed,status%20of%20business%20around%20the
[4] https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1297196/dole-close-to-100000-lost-jobs-in-jan-june
[5] https://www.gppb.gov.ph/issuances/Resolutions/GPPB%20Resolution%20No.%2003-2020.pdf
[6] https://www.gppb.gov.ph/issuances/Resolutions/GPPB%20Resolution%20No.%2005-2020.pdf
[7] https://www.gppb.gov.ph/issuances/Resolutions/GPPB%20Resolution%20No.%2006-2020.pdf
[8] https://www.gppb.gov.ph/issuances/Resolutions/GPPB%20Resolution%20No.%2009-2020%20with%20SGD.pdf

Can the LGUs respond to LSIs? A classification system to qualify capacity of local government units (LGU) to ACT on arriving COVID-19 positive locally stranded individuals (LSI)

(This article is submitted by the research team and may be updated in the future.)

The COVID-19 pandemic has largely affected local government units (LGU) in the Philippines, guven the continuous rise of confirmed COVID-19 cases within their respective areas of jurisdiction. In mid-June 2020 alone for example, a spike in the COVID-19 cases was observed across all regions in the country.

As of July 22, 2020, a total of 72,269 confirmed COVID-19 cases has been reported, of which 46,803 cases are classified as active [1]. It is therefore imperative for the LGUs to immediately contain this spike in confirmed COVID-19 cases to prevent further spread of infection in their areas.

Possible Cause of Recent Spike in COVID-19 Cases

With the sudden implementation of a nationwide lockdown across all provinces in the Philippines, about 84,000 individuals remained stranded in Metro Manila for the duration of the imposed mitigation measures in the country [2]. In this case, a humanitarian effort to send these locally stranded individuals (LSI) to their respective home provinces was launched.

As the COVID-19 data published daily by the Department of Health indicated [1], the recent spike in confirmed COVID-19 cases mid-June 2020 could be linked to the return of LSIs to their respective home provinces.

Cross-examination of recently published COVID-19 data on regions (i.e. Region V) reporting a significant number of arriving LSIs further supplemented this observation [3]. As a result, there have been reported instances of mismanagement on the containment protocols of possible COVID-19 positive cases due to the onset of this described occurrence [4]. Hence, there is then a need to assess the capacity of LGUs to properly manage the arrivals of possible COVID-19 positive LSIs while ensuring that the arriving individuals are not discriminated and properly received according to the required medical protocols .


Capacity of LGUs to ACT on Arriving LSIs


Through a research grant given by Layertech Software Labs, Inc. and Hivos – People Unlimited, a group of faculty researchers from Bicol University College of Engineering looked closely into this present dilemma. Using COVID-19 related procurement data and officially press released COVID-19 data for the case of Region V, a system classifying the capacity of LGUs in the said region to accommodate, contain, and treat (ACT) arriving LSIs was formulated.

Under the developed system, three general LGU classifications were then derived namely, “low”, “moderate”, and “high”.

LGUs classified under the “high” category were reported to have at least three (3) hospitals and at least 10,000 PPEs readily available for ACTing on the arrival of possible COVID-19 positive LSIs. This then implied according to the researchers that LGUs categorized as “high” are the most equipped on ACTing on arriving LSIs. On the other hand, “moderate” LGUs were reported to have 1-2 hospitals readily available and a significantly low number of active COVID-19 cases within their respective areas of jurisdiction while “low” LGUs were also reported to have 1-2 hospitals within their vicinity but their active COVID-19 cases were relatively higher than that of “moderate” and “high” LGUs. In this perspective as cited by the researchers, LGUs (i.e. Oas, Albay) classified into “moderate” or “low” categories are highly advised to exercise due scrutiny and adhere to stringent health protocols while ensuring LSIs are not discriminated upon their arrival.


With the validation studies done on the case of Region V, this developed classification system is indeed seen to be helpful in providing data-driven insights that will specifically aid decision-makers on creating policies for proper management on the arrival of such individuals.

See the researcher’s presentation slides below:

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Watch the entire presentation in the following video:


References:
[1] https://www.doh.gov.ph/covid19tracker
[2] https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2020/06/22/2022647/palace-government-reviewing-hatid-probinsya
[3] https://www.facebook.com/dohbicol/
[4] https://www.cnn.ph/news/2020/6/22/Hatid-Probinsya-Program-COVID-19-cases-provinces-Roque0.html